Timing Retail Investor Communications with Wave Theory
The methods of investor relations (IR) are continuing to undergo change in the wake of scandals, revised government regulations and legislation, increased knowledge levels of investment community, and overall societal desires for transparency and ethical business operation. Some companies have curtailed IR programs because of fear of missteps. For others, IR programs have increased, but with a scattergun approach to institutional and retail investors. The retail segment is important, but the most difficult stakeholder group to reach.
Drawing from wave theory and selected other technical indicators for equity market analysis, we identify the particular wave segments with the greatest likelihood of retail investor strength. For a sample of 50 corporations listed on NYSE and NASDQ, we measure the dynamics of the wave and examine the news story tracking to categorize higher and lower media campaigns. We use Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of the "retail investor" wave extended by media campaign levels.
The study finds that when corporations increase media coverage during a retail investor stock market wave, there is a significant increase in the power of the wave.